2039 Post-Draft Analysis - 1st Round

1. New York Mets - SP Jorge Bergoglio          Grade: A

No surprise at #1 this year, as Bergoglio was too good for the Mets to pass up. This pick gives them an ace for the next decade plus.



2. San Francisco Giants (from Black Bears) - C Tyr Volund          Grade: B

When San Francisco traded up to the #2 spot, I was sure it was for Schweinsteiger, so I was surprised to see them take Volund. I can certainly see the logic behind it, but I think Schweinsteiger will be the better player and would have been the better fit.



3. Mexico City Aztecs - SS Mario Andres          Grade: C

I had a feeling someone would fall in love with Andres' average and pick him a lot higher than I projected, but in a class this strong I can't justify picking a player with no power and a low FLD% at #3 overall. Shortstops with less than .980 FLD% tend to struggle in the field, and anything less than .975 is usually disastrous.



4. Arizona Diamondbacks (from Tigers through White Sox) - LF Amir Atkins          Grade: B+

Atkins should be an all-star for a very long time, and in a different class would have probably been the consensus best hitter in the draft. I don't think he's as good as Schweinsteiger, but aclilly17 apparently doesn't use 3rd basemen.



5. Minnesota Twins - CF Zach Metzinger          Grade: B+

Another great player whose only flaw is that he isn't Schweinsteiger. Metzinger's insane fire should make him an elite leadoff hitter.



6. Texas Rangers - SP Keisuke Honda          Grade: A

The Rangers needed pitching, and while it was probably tempting to take Schweinsteiger here, Texas stayed true to their board and grabbed the best pitcher available.



7. Washington Nationals - 3B Bastian Schweinsteiger          Grade: A

Jabarwick must have been the happiest GM in the draft to have the best offensive player fall to him at #7.



8. St. Louis Cardinals - SP Kim Shin-Wook          Grade: B-

The Cardinals probably liked the strikeouts, but I'm not sold on Shin-Wook, and St. Louis doesn't have a 2B on their roster while there was a very good one available here.



9. Shanghai Crowned Cranes - SP James Todd Smith          Grade: B+

Shanghai needed pitching as bad as anyone, and while he'll never be a star, I think Smith will have a quietly solid career.



10. Chicago Cubs - 2B Kenzo Yokoyama          Grade: A

The Cubs already have a pretty good 2B in Tsubasa, but Yokoyama was too good to pass up here. He's already a very developed prospect as just 22 years old, and has an extremely high ceiling.



11. Los Angeles Angels - 3B Yong Gi          Grade: B+

Gi is a talented prospect with one flaw - he doesn't walk. His defense is what really makes this a solid pick though.



12. Toronto Blue Jays - CF Benjamin Lowe          Grade: B

Lowe is a good all-around player, but lacks that one star quality. He'll have big shoes to fill as the replacement for Derek Beauprez in Toronto.



13. Vancouver Canadians (from Giants) - 1B Young Suk          Grade: B-

Vancouver acquired this pick hoping to draft Lowe, only to see Toronto pick him one spot ahead. Suk is a quality hitter in the making, but is probably limited to a full-time DH role.



14. Atlanta Braves - 3B Conan Lincoln          Grade: A

Lincoln is one of my favorite players in the draft. He'll need a few years of development but he'll hit for both average and power in his prime.



15. Seattle Cascades - CF Vojtech Vilem          Grade: D+

I've studied Vilem over and over to see what I'm missing about him that would cause a team to pick him so high, but I just can't find it. His OBP is high, but he's average or below average everywhere else. I don't see the appeal here.



16. Chicago Cubs (from Astros) - RF Jordan Dimas          Grade: A

Chicago struck gold with both of their 1st round picks. Dimas is another one of my favorite prospects, and he should develop into a very versatile hitter who can fill any lineup position.



17. St. Louis Cardinals (from White Sox) - RF Hershel Yakov          Grade: B+

Yakov's AVG and OBP are insanely high, especially for a 20 year old. He doesn't hit for power, but that's ok. Expect to see him on base a ton for a talented young Cardinals squad.



18. Washington Nationals (from Phillies) - SP Ghoste Erickson          Grade: A

I thought a team might like Erickson enough to pick him top 12, but instead Washington lands him at #18. Erickson might struggle initially, but his ceiling is very high, and I believe he's the last true impact SP in the draft.



19. San Francisco Giants (from Canadians) - 2B Kevin Bernard          Grade: B+

I like Bernard a lot, although San Fran might not be able to play both he and 2B Quillin.



20. Arizona Diamondbacks - SP Rajiv van La Parra          Grade: B

This is a true wait and see pick right here. Van La Parra's high fire could make him a great slump bust starter, but his high H/9 leaves a big question mark.



21. Tokyo A's - SP Lynden Gooch          Grade: D

This pick is another huge head-scratcher. The only things I like about Gooch are his BB/9 and his name. If he were 20 years old, maybe I could see the potential, but at 23 I don't think he'll have enough time to develop into a serviceable starter.



22. Baltimore Orioles - SP Julio Herrera          Grade: B+

I wasn't sure if Herrera would go in the 1st round, but I like him more and more the more I look at the stats.



23. Washington Nationals (from Expos) - RP Ben Simmons          Grade: C+

I don't have a fundamental problem with drafting an RP in the 1st round, but I didn't see any RP in this draft worthy of a 1st round selection.



24. Toronto Blue Jays (from Yankees) - 1B Bertrand Russell          Grade: A

I like Russell a lot. Offensively, he's just a bit better than decent, but a 1st basemen with 6.9 RF is a valuable asset in this league. When you can find a defensive standout with a serviceable bat, you have to take him.



25. Los Angeles Dodgers - SP Herby Fernandez          Grade: B

Fernandez is a long-term project. I don't like the high walks/low fire, but LAD is desperate enough for starting pitching that it makes sense to take a gamble on him.



26. Detroit Tigers (from ?Rocksteady?) - C Patrick Fitzgerald          Grade: B+

Fitzgerald is a long time away from being a lineup-worthy bat, but a catcher with his range is absolutely a 1st round talent. With Detroit in a full rebuild, they can safely stash him away until his offense comes along a bit, and then reap the rewards of his defense.



27. Cincinnati Reds - LF Thomas Cummings          Grade: A

I'm surprised that Cummings nearly fell out of the 1st round, as he's a borderline top 15 talent in my mind. Excellent value for the Reds here.



28. Boston Red Sox - CF Alonso Cipriano          Grade: B+

Cipriano is another guy who I was surprised to see fall. He'll need more time than Cummings to be a difference maker, but this is an excellent developmental 20 year old.